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After being punished with extra UN sanctions for launching a long-range rocket, North Korea may now be turning to foreign investment from Singapore and Indonesia to boost its economy.

North Korea looks to Singapore, Indonesia for economy boost (Credit: ABC)
North Korea’s ceremonial leader, Kim Yong Nam, visited the Southeast Asian nations this week in what’s being called a bid to build economic partnerships with the countries.

Mr Kim, the President of the Presidium of North Korea’s Parliament, spent two days in Singapore where he visited a food factory and an electronics manufacturer.

Observers say North Korea may have used the trip to learn how to develop a successful growth model that does not threaten Pyongyang’s political power structure.

Others say, Singapore offers an attractive model to North Korea for attracting direct foreign investment.

Presenter: Bill Bainbridge

Speaker: Professor Zhi Zhiqun, visiting Senior Research Fellow at Singapore’s East Asian Institute

ZHU: I think Mr Kim is here trying to break up the isolation and sanctions imposed by western powers, especially the United States and Japan. So he’s trying to reach out to form partnerships with other countries.

BAINBRIDGE: And is that working with Singapore, I mean what kind of history do Singapore and North Korea have in terms of their trade relationship?

ZHU: My understanding is that Singapore already has some investment in North Korea, so does Indonesia. And I have to say that many of these Southeast Asian nations are less ideological and less critical of North Korea. So from a pure business perspective I think they see North Korea as a new frontier for investing, so it’s a good opportunity for many countries in the region.

BAINBRIDGE: Why do you think that is that they’re less as you put it, ideological and critical of North Korea? Why don’t they go along with the UN approach, the US approach to isolate North Korea and punish it for its threatening positions on nuclear armament?

ZHU: That’s a good point, I think in general these countries also support UN resolutions and support western countries approach to North Korea. However I don’t think and they completely agree with specific policies. For example basically western powers, especially the United States their approach to North Korea is based on sanctions and isolation and I think this kind of approach lacks creativity and is really morally deficient, because what kind of objective can these policies achieve? Well it’s the poor North Korean people who are suffering, the North Korean ruling elites in Pyongyang are not going to be affected by such an approach. So I think many countries in the region perhaps think differently from the United States and other western powers. So they may wish to try a different approach.

BAINBRIDGE: So is there evidence then on the other hand that engagement with North Korea by Singapore and Indonesia and other countries is acutally promoting more openness from North Korea?

ZHU: I think so, for example Indonesia and North Korea recently signed an agreement to exchange news, photos, tv footage, earlier Associated Press already opened a bureau in Pyongyang. So I think there are signs, there are indications that North Korea is moving positively towards integrating itself with the international community. And also I learnt that for example previously visitors to North Korea cannot take photos and cannot carry cell phones with them, and more recently such restrictions have been eased. So there are positive signs from North Korea, so I think such a development needs to be encouraged.

BAINBRIDGE: So what some people are suggesting is that North Korea wants to learn from Singapore’s economic model. Why would Singapore be an appealing model to the North Koreans?

ZHU: Well you remember before Kim Jong-il died China invited Kim Jong-il to visit two towns like Shanghai, Shenzhen. I think Kim Jong-il was probably very impressed. However China is such a big country, I think smaller nations in Southeast Asia are perhaps more relevant, and I think perhaps North Korea feels that Singapore especially as one of the four tigers has much to offer to North Korea, unlike China which is a totally different situation. So I believe that Singapore serves as a good model for North Korea, especially in terms of attracting foreign investment.

BAINBRIDGE: And what about Indonesia. Kim Yong Nam is in Indonesia now, what do you think he’ll gain from that trip?

ZHU: Indonesia is a different story. Indonesia and North Korea actually have had good relations since the 1950s. I think they established relations in the early 1960s. Indonesia offers a different model because Indonesia is also a nation rich in resources. And North Korea is in the same situation, North Korea actually has a lot of minerals and other resources. I think they can make a lot of money by exporting these resources and Indonesia definitely has much to offer in this regard.

BAINBRIDGE: And so perhaps a closer model for North Korea would be Singapore?

ZHU: Well I would say both Indonesia and Singapore can offer something to North Korea. And of course especially in terms of growth and investment. Perhaps Singapore offers a better model, a better approach, but I think North Korea can really learn a lot from many of these countries in the region, and it can also learn from China, although it’s on a much larger scale. So by and large I believe that all these countries in the region need to encourage North Korea, to help North Korea to integrate into the regional economy and that’s the proper approach I believe. Personally I don’t like, I don’t think the sanctions and the isolation preferred by western powers will work.

RadioAustralia.net.au

Knock..Knock..Knocking on BRICS’ Door

By Kester Kenn Klomegah

Indonesia’s keen interest in becoming the newest member of BRICS – a bloc of emerging-market nations comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – has sparked off a round of debate on the future and efficacy of South-South groupings.

István Tarrósy, assistant professor of political science at the Department of Political Studies at the University of Pécs and managing director of the Africa Research Centre in Pécs, Hungary, said that Indonesia’s development statistics make the country a shoe-in for membership: it is the largest economy in southeast Asia and is a demographic giant with a population of 248 million people, making it the fourth most populous country in the world, ahead of even Brazil and Russia.

It also has an active labour force of 117 million people, as of 2011.

Indonesia has long been recognised as a leading actor in the developing world, most notably for its active role within the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM) ever since it hosted the Bandung Conference in 1955.

“Its voice has always been decisive in any issue connected with the then Third World, today, the Global South. In terms of South-South cooperation, and in light of a redefined system of North-South dialogue within a gradually more multi-polar world, Indonesia has its place among the top categories of states influencing how our transnational global world develops,” Tarrósy told IPS.

Furthermore, given the country’s “pragmatic foreign policy practices and long-term cooperation with countries of the region and beyond, Indonesia could strengthen the common voice of emerging economies via BRICS. With the potential entrance of Indonesia, BRICS would then need to redefine, or rather refine its status as (possibly) one of the most important inter-regional groupings of countries of the global South,” he added.

Another significant issue is the investment sector, on which developing or emerging economies rely heavily. Foreign direct investment (FDI) into Indonesia, and Indonesian FDI flown into other, less strong economies across southeast Asia and beyond, could be further encouraged by BRICS membership, which would facilitate better trans-regional cooperation.

For instance, it could pave the way for increased “South-South cooperation in Africa, with a more substantial Indonesian role in project generation and financing. In addition to China’s and India’s growing presence and involvement in the African continent, Indonesia could play (a bigger role), particularly if we (acknowledge) the growing amount of official development assistance (ODA) emerging economies have granted Africa,” according to Tarrósy.

Indonesia is one of Asia’s leading economic powerhouses; with last year’s economic growth recorded at 6.5 percent, the country is poised to overtake Russia in the regional economic race, said John Mashaka, financial analyst at Wells Fargo Capital Markets.

He told IPS that Indonesia recorded exports worth 204 billion dollars in 2011. Compared to its European counterparts like Greece, Italy and Spain, which are still floundering in the economic slush of the 2008 crash, Indonesia’s credit ratings shot up and the country’s economic outlook remains favorable.

Its domestic market is huge and the current economic boom can be attributed to its political stability and sound economic and monetary policies, which have attracted consistent FDI.

“In short, Indonesia is an economic power to be (reckoned) with and its decision to join the BRICS could have a huge impact in terms of the body’s credibility. Indonesian membership will definitely solidify BRICS’ capital composition, and also bring on board extraordinary fiscal capability,” Mashaka told IPS.

BRICS versus IBSA?

Thomas Lawo, executive director of the European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI) in Bonn, Germany, doubts that BRICS will be a major game-changer in global geopolitics in an increasingly multi-polar world, mostly because of its members’ divergent economic trends and political interests.

On the one hand, Russia is set to re-emerge as a strong global power with a dominant role in central and western Asia, along with India and China.

“But India needs to sort out its internal rifts and neighbourhood problems first, while China is becoming a strong force to reckon with in Asia, Africa and Europe. China is definitely the (primary) growth-engine of Asia and is stepping up its influence in the global economy (armed) with military strength to match its ambitions,” Lawo said.

Indonesia, on the other hand, is more comfortably clustered with South Africa and Brazil as a regional power and an economic anchor-country for the southeast Asian region, but lesser on a wider global scale.

Another possibility is the re-emergence of a politically stronger ASEAN, now that Burma (Myanmar) is opening up to its neighbours. In this context, the MIST countries – Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand – will become more relevant, if they can overcome their internal problems and play the regional integration card.

Alexandra A. Arkhangelskaya, head of the Centre for Information and International Relations at the Institute for African Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, explained to IPS that after the admission of South Africa, BRICS will likely be expanded to include Indonesia, Turkey, Australia, Nigeria and Mexico.

If this happens, she stressed, BRICS will be pushed to clearly articulate its specific identity in the international arena.

The rise of BRICS as regional bloc also raises the question of whether its role is very different from that of IBSA, the same group minus China and Russia.

BRICS has certainly attracted a lot of attention and it is widely accepted that the bloc will try to achieve certain broad economic reforms as well as attempt to restructure the Western-dominated global financial architecture.

Still, Arkhangelskaya believes that the extent to which IBSA will be forced to live in the former’s shadow will very much depend on South Africa, which is currently “sitting on two chairs”, as well as China’s role in BRICS and the world economy.

Experts fear that IBSA will be forced to dissolve in the light of BRICS’ expansion.

Some analysts still argue that IBSA and BRICS represent the old clash of India versus China; others believe it is more likely that the groups will find themselves on very different tiers of the South-South multilateral cake.

Although there is some overlap in core issues, the fact remains that the BRICS countries are more focused on economy, while IBSA is concerned with promoting democratic values and other causes common to the three countries, and has a distinct personality of its own.

Thus, IBSA can remain an instrumental and practical mechanism of the three countries representing three different continents, sharing their interests and strengthening their economic cooperation to further the interests of the South.

(Source : InterPressService IPS.org)

Google Art Project Brings Indonesia’s Artifacts, Batiks to Worldwide Audience

(Taken from The Jakarta Globe and Associated Press)
Google and the Indonesian National Museum announced on Wednesday that everyone in the world can now view rare Indonesian batiks and historical artifacts online with a few simple mouse clicks.

Web users can visit googleartproject.com to see around 100 pieces of art, including traditional Indonesian batiks and artifacts from the Sultanates of ancient Indonesia, like the Kutai Kingdom in East Kalimantan.

The Web site features high-resolution images of the pieces and explains their cultural significance. Users can also view a map pinpointing where in Indonesia each item originated from.

For some of the works featured — like Mega Mendung batik cloth, which shows a Chinese influence — users can even view a video explaining how they were made.

The site provides insight into Indonesia’s diverse cultures and traditions by featuring the subtle differences in motif and technique evident in batiks created from one region to the next.

Viewers can also learn about the varieties of keris , or traditional daggers, from different parts of the country.

Also featured on the site are statues and sacred objects used in ceremonies and healing rituals, some still practiced today.

The Google Art project is a global partnership between Google and 151 cultural institutions in 40 countries that aims to make artwork accessible to anyone, anywhere, anytime.

The Acropolis museum in Greece, along with some other participating institutions, offers users a virtual three-dimensional tour of the actual museum.

Google Art Project launched in February 2011 with about 1,000 artworks from such institutions as the Tate Gallery in London, the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City, the Uffizi in Florence and the Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam.

“From now on anyone can visit these great institutions with just the click of a mouse,” Google president Margo Georgiadis said. “This project breaks down all of the barriers and allows people to study art in a seamless way.”

Indonesia Semakin Berperan di Tingkat Internasional

Indonesia melalui Presiden Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono menyatakan kesiapan Indonesia dalam memikul tanggung jawab yang lebih besar di kancah internasional. Hal ini diutarakan saat kunjungan Sekjen PBB  Ban Ki-Moon di Istana Bogor, 20 Maret 2012 lalu.

“kami (Presiden SBY dan Sekjen PBB) merancang hubungan kemitraan strategik baik antara pemerintah Indonesia denga Perwakilan PBB di Jakarta maupun dengan PBB pada umumnya” terang Presiden SBY.

Ban Ki-Moon juga menyatakan rasa senangnya atas hubungan baik Indonesia yang terjalin dengan PBB selama ini.

Selain membicarakan masalah bilateral PBB-Indonesia, keduanya juga bertukar pikiran soal perkembangan Timur Tengah dan Afrika Utara, pentingnya Millenium Development Goals (MDGs), perubahan iklim dan KTT Rio+20.

Selain itu, mereka juga berdiskusi soal perkembangan isu Laut China Selatan, proses demokasi di Myanmar, Semenanjung Korea dan perbatasan Thailand dan Kamboja.

Saat membicarakan tentang Indonesia, Ban Ki-Moon memuji kemajuan yang telah dicapai oleh Indonesia, salah satunya adalah peran keketuaan Indonesia di ASEAN 2011, upaya dalam memelihara kerukunan dan keharmonisan dan pencapaian di bidang sosial dan ekonomi.

News Source: Deplu

Sang Pembuka Jalan jangan Dilupakan..

Asian Way: Peranan Indonesia/ASEAN dalam reformasi Myanmar.

Oleh: Ahmad Cholis Hamzah, MSc*

Sejak lama dunia memperhatikan sepak terjang junta militer Myanmar yang memerintah negaranya dengan keras menggunakan kekuatan militernya. Demonstrasi rakyatnya yang di ikkuti banyak biksu Budha juga di hadapi dengan kekerasan. Dalam banyak hal kejadian-kejadian di dalam negeri Myanmar mengingatkan kejadian-kejadian serupa di Indonesia ketika masih dibawah Jenderal Soeharto. Seluruh elemen pemimin bangsa ditingkat pusat sampai daerah di kuasai oleh militer dan dengan menggunakan kekuatan militer. Kelompok-kelompok yang menentang pemerintah di penjara tanpa alasan hukum jelas. Di Myanmar pemimpin pembangkang Au San Suu Kyi di penjara di rumahnya dan dihilangkan hak-hak politiknya. Pembunuhan terhadap para kelompok pembangkang juga sering terjadi.

Negara-negara barat sejak lama menginginkan pengucilan Myanmar karena telah melakukan pelanggaran HAM berat. Kritikan-kritikan dan ancaman embargo negara-negara barat itu seakan masuk telinga kiri keluar telinga kanan bagi junta militer Myanmar. Negara-negara barat pun mendesak ASEAN untuk berbuat lebih banyak untuk “memaksa” Myanmar – sebagai anggota ASEAN untuk lebih demokratis dan menghargai hak-hak rakyatnya.

Sejak dulu negara – negara anggota ASEAN terutama pada jaman Soeharto dan Mahatir Muhammad selalu menekankan cara-cara penyelesaian damai terhadap Myanmar atau yang sering di sebut sebagai “Asian Ways”, cara-cara Asia dalam menyelesaikan konflik, lebih mementingkan musyawarah, berdialog seperti keluarga daripada dengan cara-cara ancaman embargo misalnya. Para pemimpin ASEAN sudah lama terbukti berhasil menggunakan cara –cara Asia ini dalam menyelesaikan konflik yang terjadi di negara-negara anggota ASEAN.

Pada saat Indonesia menjadi ketua ASEAN, Indonesia berhasil “menaklukkan” hati para jenderal junta Militer Myanmar untuk melakukan demokrasi damai di negerinya. Beberapa kali pertemuan tingkat tinggi dengan pejabat-pejabat Myanmar dilakukan, bahkan para pemimpin ASEAN setuju (meskipun melalui perdebatan serius) untuk memberikan kursi Ketua ASEAN kepada Myanmar pada tahun 2014 nanti. Dalam hal tersebut, para diplomat Indonesia sepertinya mati-matian berusaha agar Myanmar dapat secara mulus menjadi ketua ASEAN. Dan lihatlah hasilnya , Myanmar membebaskan Au San Suu Kyi dan menyelenggarakan pemilu. Myanmar secara perlahan membuka diri diharapkan akan menuju tahap-tahap demokrasi seperti yang terjadi di negara-negara anggota ASEAN lainnya.

Cara-cara penyelesaian konflik “Asian Ways” ini memang bagi negara-negara barat dinilai lambat; namun di akui lebih ampuh dan mengena dibanding dengan cara-cara ancaman. Budaya dan nilai-nilai yang berlaku di negara-negara ASEAN sebagai budaya yang mementingkan kekeluargaan dan harmoni itu ternyata terbukti dapat berperan besar dalam menyelesaikan persoalan global. Budaya ASEAN yang tidak “high profile” itu lebih bisa diterima dengan kepala dingin. Para pemimpin ASEAN yang menggunakan cara-cara diplomatik Asian Ways lebih bisa diterima sebagai partner bukan sebagai lawan.

 Semoga kedepannya para pemimpin ASEAN dan para generasi baru pemimpin di negara-negara ASEAN dapat mempertahankan nilai-nilai luhur budaya ASEAN ini. Para generasi baru di negara-negara ASEAN harus lebih memahami sifat budayanya sendiri dan mempertahankannya dengan baik. Dengan cara-cara seperti ini di yakini bahwa kawasan ASEAN ini akan damai dan menjadi role model bagi negara-negara lain di bebeberapa kawasan dunia ini yang masih menggunakan cara-cara kekerasan dalam menyelesaikan persoalan.

* Alumni University of London dan Universitas Airlangga Surabaya. Saat ini dosen STIE PERBANAS Surabaya

Indonesian journalists` photos to be exhibited at Amsterdam Biennial Festival 2012

Amsterdam (ANTARA News) – GRID Biennial 2012 Committee officials have said they are pleased to display Indonesian journalists` photos and documentary movies at the “Biennial Festival 2012″ photo and visual art festival running from May to June, in Amsterdam.

The message was delivered by Managing Director GRID Biennial 2012 Hans Peter Schoonenberg to Head of Press-Media and Cultural Affair of Indonesian Embassy at Den Hag Bonifatius Herindra, in Amsterdam, Netherlands on Wednesday, Feb 29.

“These photos clearly tell about the global problems which happen in many countries,” said Schoonenberg.

He further said the urban life scenes that were depicted in the photos have a strong message for each country which shares the same problems.

Further, Herindra confirmed that hundreds of photos taken by ANTARA News Agency journalists will be exhibited during the Amsterdam festival.

He said Indonesian photography would provide a new perspective about the development of photography in Indonesia and the role it plays in bringing difficult social issues to the public’s attention.

“We will share Indonesians aspirations with the world through their photography about urban life and the interaction between its citizens to their environment,” said Herindra.

The other delegation members are Head of AMTARA Indonesian Press Photo Agency Hermanus Prihatna and Editorial Secretary of ANTARA Benny S Butarbutar, who also explained the message of each photo that will be submitted to the committee.

“We appreciate the committee, which is very cooperative, in giving us the strategic location to display the Indonesian works. That is why we surely have prepared the world class works,” said Prihatna.

GRID Biennial Festival was first held in 2002 in Amsterdam and visited by hundreds of thousands of people.

In 2010, the festival recorded 400,000 people attending the event from throughout the world.

The high interest of visitors and participants, including those from Asian and African countries, have caused the committee to enlarge the exhibition location to others cities in Amsterdam.
(UU.A060/INE/O001)

Indonesia and Egypt separated at birth? No, just completely separate.

Indonesia and Egypt are large. They’re Muslim. They’ve thrown off long-standing dictators. These similarities aren’t particularly meaningful.

Since Hosni Mubarak was toppled a year ago, I’ve been periodically asked to write a piece comparing Egypt now to Indonesia after Soeharto.

Since “country x is not country y” is one of my mantras, I’ve declined. I covered the fall of both men, and see very little beyond superficial similarities between Indonesia in 1998 and Egypt today.

But a small literature comparing Egypt’s uprising to Indonesia’s in 1998 has cropped up, suggesting Indonesia may be a predictor or a model for Egypt. So I’ve decided to throw my hat into the ring as a corrective. 

The latest example to catch my eye is John T. Sidel’s essay in Foreign Policy. Dr. Sidel, an academic focused on Southeast Asia, begins by listing a set of “striking parallels” between Egypt now and Indonesia over a decade ago: The countries are big, with Muslim majorities and significant non-Muslim minorities. They were led by anti-Western gadflies in the 50s and 60s. And after that they were military-dominated dictatorships with warm relations with the US, particularly during the cold war.

This is all true, but not particularly relevant or instructive. Most discussions of what Egypt and Indonesia have in common ignore the rather striking differences between their economies, geographies, and historical experiences. These differences are far more important than both states having lots of Muslims.

Money

Indonesia is an archipelago blessed with vast natural resources. It has abundant natural gas and oil production that, though dwindling, dwarfs Egypt’s. The country holds the richest tropical forests outside of the Amazon, the largest copper and gold mine in the world, and is the dominant exporter of commodities ranging from palm oil (with exports worth about $14 billion a year) to natural rubber ($7 billion a year) to plywood and paper.

Indonesia has dramatically more arable land than Egypt, with parts of Java and Bali home to some of the most productive soils on the globe. Traditionally, rich farmland has taken the edge off of economic shocks, with laid off factory workers returning to the village.

Indonesia has enjoyed centuries of maritime trade with China to the east and India to the west. It has a far more literate and productive population than Egypt. 

So, the geographic and economic reality couldn’t be more different between Egypt and Indonesia. Indonesia was a funnel for foreign manufacturing investment before the 1998 economic crisis that led to Soeharto’s downfall, and was so again a few years after. The country was soon booming again –thanks in part to having China and India nearby – creating jobs and leading average Indonesians to be happier with political change. Egypt, with creaky infrastructure and low productivity, has been losing manufacturing jobs for years. Egypt’s prospects for a fast economic recovery – let alone a boom like Indonesia’s – are much grimmer, and economics influences politics.

Backdrop

Sidel’s comparison of the revitalization of the Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI) under Megawati Sukarnoputri in the early to mid-1990s and the rise of the Kifaya (Enough) movement in Mubarak’s final years is also misplaced.

Megawati, as the daughter of Indonesia’s founding president Sukarno, had an almost pre-fab cult of personality around her, with many early supporters muttering that she had some of her father’s mystical aura. The PDI was one of two opposition political parties legally tolerated by Soeharto, and he allowed her to take the reins, reasoning that a poorly-educated and inexperienced housewife would prove easy to control.

Soeharto’s guess was wrong, mostly because an ambitious group of reformers hitched themselves to Megawati’s star and started real opposition politics as Soeharto’s family members began jockeying to succeed the aging leader.

She was eventually removed as the head of the party, though perhaps had the last laugh when she became Indonesia’s president in 2001. Once in power, she demonstrated autocratic tendencies, a hyper-nationalism that sought to forgive human rights abuses by the Indonesian military, and an unwillingness to take steps that might effect the power and privilege of the Indonesian elite she’d been born into.

The Kifaya movement in Egypt was a far looser protest movement opposed to the continued rule of Mubarak and the obvious plans the regime was laying for succession by his son, Gamal (another superficial, but not particularly interesting parallel with Soeharto; despots frequently like dynastic succession). But Kifaya hasn’t existed in any real sense for years, never had a unifying political personality like “Mother Mega” (as her fans called her), and the activists that worked with it years ago have splintered into various political camps – socialist, Islamist, etc… since.

Immediate aftermath

And though the ultimate cause of Soeharto’s demise was the military withdrawal of support, as was the case with Mubarak, Soeharto was immediately replaced by his civilian vice president, BJ Habibie. Egypt’s military, meanwhile, has ruled directly for the past year in a fashion more like the military command council that followed Soeharto’s 1965 coup than post-Soeharto Indonesia in 1998.

The mercurial Habibie defied the military and set the stage for the independence of tiny East Timor. By June of 1999 the country had held its first free legislative elections since 1955. The result? The dominance of secular parties in the new legislature (among them Soeharto’s Golkar, which unlike Mubarak’s NDP was not outlawed). Islamist parties took about 35 percent of the vote (compared to the over 70 percent Islamist groups won in Egypt’s just completed parliamentary election.)

Indonesia did experience years of upheaval, with some horrific religious wars in Maluku and parts of Sulawesi. Egypt, too, could face religious conflict as Sidel suggests. But Sidel is wrong to see “many parallels” between the war in Maluku, which was as much about cultural clashes between economic migrants and longstanding residents as it was about faith, and the recent killing of Coptic protesters by Egypt’s military during a protest outside the state TV building in Cairo.

The nature of communal religious tensions between Christians and Muslims in Egypt is far different from those in Indonesia, which is also a dramatically more religious and culturally diverse place. Exhibit A might be Abdurrahman Wahid, Habibie’s successor. Mr. Wahid was the hereditary head of a mass organization called the Nahdlatul Ulama, or roughly “The Revival of Muslim scholars.” His National Awakening Party won 12.5 percent of the vote in the first post-Soeharto elections, making it the biggest “Islamist” party in Parliament (compare that to Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood is the single largest party in Parliament, with about 48 percent of the seats).

But Sidel suggests that Wahid’s success parallels the Egyptian experience so far. But Mr. Wahid is a brand of “Islamist” that almost no one in Egypt would recognize. He was a long term defender of religious pluralism, the right of Muslims to convert to other faiths (most Brotherhood members would be uncomfortable with this). He made a habit of meditating and communing with the Javanese spirits for guidance (the average Brother’s discomfort would shoot to horror at this point) and he once told eminent Indonesianist William Liddle that his favorite book was My Name is Asher Lev, Chaim Potok‘s allegory about a descendant of a long line of rabbis struggling to reconcile modernity and faith. Potok is not generally found on Brotherhood reading lists.

Sidel concludes his piece by suggesting that Egypt could very well follow the footsteps of Indonesia, which has prospered mightily since the fall of Soeharto, and forged a much more open and responsive political culture than had ever been possible there. Let’s hope he’s right. But Indonesia, with its dramatically different culture, economic standing, and results in early elections, teaches us nothing about what’s coming next in Egypt.

Source : www.csmonitor.com

Southeast Asia’s economic performance in 2012

Some Chinese astrologers have pronounced that 2012, the year of the dragon, will be particularly volatile.

But you do not have to believe in the Chinese zodiac to know that Southeast Asia is likely to have a tumultuous year. In 2012, Southeast Asia faces the prospect of increased economic uncertainty generated by the macroeconomic difficulties of advanced countries (particularly Europe, but also the United States and Japan) as well as the likelihood of a further slowdown in China. Not only are the Southeast Asian economies among the most open to trade and financial flows in the world, they are also tightly integrated through production networks with China, and via China with US and European markets. Openness to trade and finance has brought immeasurable benefits to Southeast Asian economies — but that openness now makes them vulnerable to the actions of others.

Southeast Asian leaders should be worried. There is a significant probability that Europe, Southeast Asia’s largest trading partner, will go into recession in 2012 — and that is if things go relatively well. The trade implications are well known, but may be underestimated — especially if a European recession snuffs out a tentative recovery in the US. Financial repercussions are more difficult to anticipate. Global financial markets have become so tightly integrated that a sudden increase in demand for liquidity following any unpleasant shock or surprise in Europe could easily translate into a capital reversal on the other side of the world.

Over the course of the last two years, the liquidity injected into the global financial system by the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve quickly found its way to the shores of Southeast Asia in search of higher returns. These flows could just as easily reverse direction. This is a phenomenon Southeast Asia has seen three times in recent memory — prior to the Asian financial crisis, then following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008 and (to a lesser extent) toward the end of last year. If it were to happen again, the shock to liquidity, interest rates and exchange rates — and ultimately investment and growth — could prove difficult to manage. Indonesia has always been the most vulnerable in this regard, given the large share of short-term financial assets owned by non-residents, although this time around Thailand and Malaysia are also exposed.

China’s slowdown and rebalancing toward domestic sources of growth add another layer of uncertainty for Southeast Asia. China’s GDP is two-and-a-half times that of Southeast Asia and it is now the world’s second-largest importer. A misstep by Chinese policy makers as they seek to engineer a soft landing, or unanticipated consequences as the gradual real appreciation of the renminbi works its way through relative prices into the balance sheets of enterprises and banks, will have consequences that could easily spill over into Southeast Asia.

Most Southeast Asian economies are less well positioned to handle the economic uncertainties and surprises of 2012 than they were when the global financial crisis hit in 2008. True, inflation is on the wane, external reserves are plentiful and growth is resilient. But most Southeast Asian countries are running out of fiscal space, and this will limit public policy options to boost domestic demand in the event of yet another global slowdown. Moreover, there are serious doubts that China will once again come to the rescue with an outsized stimulus package, given that the government there is still cleaning up the mess left behind from the last one. Finally, with the exception of Singapore, Southeast Asian economies are dependent to varying degrees on commodity and natural resource exports, and commodity prices are likely to be particularly volatile this coming year.

Of course, each country in Southeast Asia is positioned differently. At one extreme is Indonesia, which has the most policy options available, given strong growth (6.4 per cent in 2011), low government and external debt burdens and a small fiscal deficit. At the other extreme is Vietnam, which suffers from periodic bouts of macroeconomic instability (inflation exceeded 18 per cent in 2011), continues to run high external current account and fiscal deficits, has a large state enterprise sector in desperate need of reform, and is now suffering from a rising number of unofficial labour strikes.

In between are the remaining economies of Southeast Asia, each with its own strengths and vulnerabilities: Thailand, where growth is going to climb from its nadir in 2011 as the economy rebuilds after last year’s devastating floods; Malaysia, where an expansionary budget in anticipation of an election year is expected to maintain growth at close to last year’s rate; Cambodia and Laos, which continue to be propelled by their abundance of natural resources (including hydro-power) and rapidly growing markets in their neighbourhood, notably China and Vietnam; and finally, Singapore and Brunei, Southeast Asia’s small but wealthy states, the former driven by the power of trade, innovation and high-end services, the latter by the power of oil.

Differently positioned though they may be, the Southeast Asian economies will certainly face shared challenges as 2012 unfolds. They will be keeping an anxious eye on Europe and the US as the year brings either a tentative and sputtering recovery or yet another recession. Either way, Southeast Asian policymakers should be prepared for a testing time ahead. .

Vikram Nehru is Senior Associate in the Asia Program and Bakrie Chair in Southeast Asian Studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Indonesia scooting while big wheels freeze

Analysis: Indonesia scooting while big wheels freeze

Estonia-Indonesia set to Raise Bilateral Relations

Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Paet and his Indonesian counterpart Marty Natalegawa met in Jakarta on Tuesday and were set to raise bilateral relations between their two countries to “a new level”.

Paet brought along with him an Estonian business delegation, as talks on expanding trade and investment partnerships between Indonesia and Estonia were high on the agenda of his four-day visit. This is the first official visit made by an Estonian top envoy to Indonesia since the countries opened mutual diplomatic relations in 1993.

Paet himself called it a “historical visit”. Marty said the Estonian minister’s visit was a follow-up to their meeting on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session in New York in September last year, during which they declared a commitment to enhancing their countries’ bilateral relations. Paet has brought Estonian business representatives from the sectors of logistics, infrastructure, maritime security, border management and healthcare, among others.

He said he had also been scheduled to meet with Indonesian Communications and Information Minister Tifatul Sembiring, Defense Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro and Health Minister Endang Rahayu Sedyaningsih. “So far there is still a lot of untapped potential in relations between Indonesia and Estonia,” Paet said in a joint press conference with Marty.

Marty said they also discussed in detail pending agreements on protection from double taxation, investment, economy and free visa arrangements for diplomatic passport holders. Paet said he was looking forward to signing those agreements to protect Estonian businesses in Indonesia.

Two-way trade between Indonesia and Estonia has been showing a positive trend in the past couple of years, with the total trade value for the January-October 2011 period standing at US$29.8 million, a 54.7 percent increase from $19.27 million in the same period of 2010. Indonesia enjoyed a surplus of $27.33 million in the January-October 2011 period, with its main export commodities including animal and plant fats, paper and paperboard, and wood and wooden products.

“We can still enhance the figures. There are plenty of places to enhance our cooperation,” Marty said. The two ministers also discussed cooperation in the field of education.

The Indonesian Foreign Ministry said in a press statement that the two countries were exploring partnerships between Indonesian and Estonian higher education institutions.

Paet specifically invited Indonesian cyber experts to further learn of cyber security and cyber defense in Estonia, in which he said the country was experienced. He added Indonesia and Bali were becoming popular among Estonians as tourist destinations.

Paet arrived in Jakarta on Monday and was scheduled to leave Indonesia on Thursday. He is joined by Finnish European Affairs and Foreign Trade Minister Alexander Stubb and a Finnish business delegation in the visit.

News Source: The Jakarta Post