The global financial crisis has accelerated the shift of economic power to emerging economies. E7 emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) are likely to exceed the developed economies of the G7 (U.S., Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada) in the near future, according to a report by PwC. PwC is one of the world’s largest consulting services business with PwC 161,000 people in 154 countries.
Continuous war has made the hardware and software sick of United States economy. The budget for defense spending in the United States economy is more than the total defense expenditures of the so-called E7 economies (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey).In 18th and 19th centuries, China and India were the major economies that this G7 developed countries (USA, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada).
In the 20th century the industrial revolution in Western Europe and the revolution of high technology in the United States has accelerated the shift of economic power to developed economies, particularly the United States is significantly. China and India has lost its dominant position in the economic power because of its large population and to not overtake the industrial revolution. In the 21st century, this temporary change of economic power is now in reverse, “said the PwC report on the world in 2050.
It’s not just China and India, HSBC estimates that 19 of the 30 emerging economies increases five times larger than the developed countries. China and India are the largest first and the third economies worldwide by 2050, marking the return of world order revolution pre-industrial 18th and 19th centuries, with the United States at number two conclude two influential reports from HSBC and PwC, respectively.
What are the basic measurement of the global economy by HSBC and PwC?
Measuring GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) – which addresses the fact that price levels tend to be lower in emerging economies – the analysis shows that the E7 emerging economies (China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey) are likely to exceed the G7 economies (United States , Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy and Canada) before 2020.
If instead we use the GDP at market exchange rates (MERs), then the passage in the world economic order is slower but just as relentless, with the E7 should go beyond the G7 countries around 2032. China also overtakes the United States the same year to become the largest economy in the world based on GDP at market exchange rates, but on a PPP this would likely occur before 2020. It’s even taking into account a slowdown in the growth rate of China over time due to its one-child policy and the fact that, as she catches up with the United States, it must rely more on innovation than in imitation of continued growth.
These overrun estimated dates based on GDP at PPP exceeded estimated dates based on GDP as under: -
E7 economic domination exceeds the economic dominance of the G7 countries on PPP basis in 2017 and in 2032 based MER.
The economic dominance of China will surpass the economic dominance of the United States on PPPs basis in 2018 and in 2032 MERs based
India’s economic dominance will exceed the economic dominance of Japan in 2011 on PPP basis and in 2028 based MER
Russian economic domination exceeds the economic dominance of Germany in 2014 on PPP basis and in 2042 based MER
Brazil economic domination exceed the economic dominance of the United Kingdom on PPP basis in 2013 and in 2023 MER
Mexico economic domination exceeds the economic dominance of France in 2028 on PPP basis and in 2046 based MER
Indonesia economic domination exceed the economic domination of Italy on PPP basis in 2030 and in 2039 MER
Turkey economic domination exceeds the economic domination of Canada in 2020 on PPP basis and in 2035 based MER
The most significant increase in its share of world GDP is actually projected for India rather than China. In 2009 India’s share in world GDP was measured at only 2%. In 2050, this share could reach almost 13%. India may overtake Japan by 2011 based on GDP at PPP, and could even surpass the United States in 2050 on this basis.
The analysis shows that Australia and Argentina can be relegated to the ranks of the largest economies of the G20 in 2050, while Vietnam and Nigeria have the potential to join that list. Indonesia could rise from the largest economy in PPP terms sixteenth in 2009 to eighth place in 2050, surpassing not only in Italy but also France, the United Kingdom and Germany over the next 40 years. Under the measure, the UK does remain closely in the top ten in 2050 with a ranking of 9th place on GDP at market exchange rates, or based on the 10th GDP at PPP. John Hawksworth, chief economist at PwC, said:
According to globalsecurity.org comparative military spending United States $ 623 billion, China is 65.0 billion and Russia $ 50.0 billion. No doubt the recession will be over in the near future in the United States. It has many natural resources and become more developed. In my opinion, borderless world has become flattened by information technology and social networking — United States must stop its hypocrisy to say something and do something. Economic war is becoming more relevant than military war. The United States must cut its military spending at par with China and stop its war with the Muslim world before becoming insignificant. United States must subsidize its low technology products to make them competitive products from China, which are important source of employment in any country.
News Source : Human Rights Online
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